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Monetary Policy and Inflation Rate in Nigeria

By Dr. Adofu Ilemona

Summary

This study assessed the significance of monetary policy on inflationary rate in Nigeria from 1986 to 2016. Quarterly and yearly secondary data sourced from CBN Statistical Bulletin 2016 and World Bank Development Index 2016 were used in this study. The Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) was used for the estimation. The following variables were analyzed: Exchange Rate (EXR), Inflation Rate (INFR), Broad Money Supply (BMS, Interest Rate (INTR) and reserve ratio (RR). Total Adult Population (ADP) Bank Branches (BB) and Commercial Bank Deposits (CBD) were also used to assess the strength and weakness of monetary policy on inflationary rate in Nigeria through financial exclusion. However, it was found out based on co integration test that there is a long run relationship between the variables employed, the causality test shows a very weak transmission effect between the variables. More so the VAR estimates shows that, interest rate, broad money and reserve ratio are not statistically significant, but expectedly exchange rate is significant and therefore accounts for the variations in inflationary rate in Nigeria. In the same vein the impulse response function shows that exchange rate, inflation rate and money supply responded to shocks on interest rate though in different dimensions and finally, the assessment of financial exclusion shows that, the rate of exclusion has been decreasing overtime but still very high and far more than the rate of inclusion which has rendered monetary policy ineffective and inefficient in tackling inflation in Nigeria. Consequently, it was recommended that: The government should ensure proper coordination of policy instruments so that policy measures are can be transmitted or channeled in order to effectively meet and control target objectives especially inflationary rate in Nigeria. Also the government should ensure exchange rate stability and most importantly our multiple exchange rate system which is detrimental to our economy
Monetary Policy and Inflation Rate in Nigeria
 
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Published: April 4, 2018

Uploaded by: Dr. Adofu Ilemona

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Abstract

 

This study assessed the significance of monetary policy on inflationary rate in Nigeria from 1986 to 2016. Quarterly and yearly secondary data sourced from CBN Statistical Bulletin 2016 and World Bank Development Index 2016 were used in this study. The Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) was used for the estimation. The following variables were analyzed: Exchange Rate (EXR), Inflation Rate (INFR), Broad Money Supply (BMS, Interest Rate (INTR) and reserve ratio (RR). Total Adult Population (ADP) Bank Branches (BB) and Commercial Bank Deposits (CBD) were also used to assess the strength and weakness of monetary policy on inflationary rate in Nigeria through financial exclusion. However, it was found out based on co integration test that there is a long run relationship between the variables employed, the causality test shows a very weak transmission effect between the variables. More so the VAR estimates shows that, interest rate, broad money and reserve  ratio are not statistically significant, but expectedly exchange rate is significant and  therefore accounts for the variations in inflationary rate in Nigeria. In the same vein the impulse response function shows that exchange rate, inflation rate and money supply responded to shocks on interest rate though in different dimensions and finally, the assessment of financial exclusion shows that, the rate of exclusion has been decreasing overtime but still very high and far more than the rate of inclusion which has rendered monetary policy ineffective and inefficient in tackling inflation in Nigeria. Consequently, it was recommended that: The government should ensure proper coordination of policy instruments so that policy measures are can be transmitted or channeled in order to effectively meet and control target objectives especially inflationary rate in Nigeria. Also the government should ensure exchange rate stability and most importantly our multiple exchange rate system which is detrimental to our economy should be harmonized and sustained to ensure price stability and CBN should encourage and  enforce  commercial banks to finance real sector investment for increased productivity, provide financial literacy, key into efficient services through innovations and technology, ensure stress free financial transactions in order to boost financial inclusion.

 

 

 

 

 

About the Author

Dr. Adofu Ilemona

Dr. Adofu Ilemona

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