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Covid19 Recession; How and Where to Invest

By Idika Agwu Aja

Summary

Going by preliminary report/data, the global economy is en-route to a recession that will surpass 2008 both in speed and magnitude. The OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) has estimated that the shut downs could lead to a “decline in the level of output between one fifth to one quarter in many economies” Similarly, Bloomberg Economics is forecasting a global recession in the first half of 2020, noting that ‘for some important parts of the world the contraction has already begun’ It foresees the global economy shrinking by 1.8% YOY in the first half of 2020, compared with growth of about 3% in 2019. Fitch Rating report of March 27, 2020 forecasted no positive sector outlooks. All sovereign sector outlooks are negative, reflecting the unprecedented supply-side shock resulting from protracted lockdowns across major economies. Nigeria’s economy has been forecasted to contract by as much as 3.4% in 2020 as global oil prices tumble even if the country is able to contain the outbreak of COVID19 the economy could still go on to, according to estimates by McKinsey & Company. However, it is being projected that the speed of recovery would be swifter because the recession reflects a shock as a result of the virus rather than build up of underlying economic imbalances.
Covid19 Recession; How and Where to Invest
 
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Abstract

A recession is a macroeconomic term used to describe a business cycle, where there is a decline in economic activity in a particular country for 2 consecutive quarters, measured through the country’s GDP in conjunction with other macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment. Where a recession endures and the decline in aggregate output is substantial, it becomes depression.

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Idika Agwu Aja

Idika Agwu Aja

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